The Bids: A Rejected Love Letter from David Ellison’s War Chest
Picture this: David Ellison, the tech-heir-turned-Hollywood hotshot (son of Oracle’s Larry, naturally), emerges from his July 2024 Paramount merger glow-up like a Bond villain with an $8 billion checkbook and a thirst for IP domination. Paramount Skydance—now a $30 billion juggernaut blending Top Gun jets with Yellowstone grit—sees WBD as the perfect prey: a $40 billion debt-riddled trophy case stuffed with HBO’s prestige pedigree, Warner Bros.’ DC Comics vault, and Discovery’s unscripted cash cow (think Naked and Afraid, but for execs dodging subpoenas).Over the past month, Ellison lobbed three escalating olive branches—er, takeover torpedoes—straight at WBD CEO David Zaslav’s fortress. Each one sweeter, each one spurned. Here’s the rejection timeline, because nothing says “romance” like a spreadsheet of snubs:
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Bid Round
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Date
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Offer Sweeteners
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Zaslav’s “Nah” Rationale
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Stock Jolt
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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Round 1: The Tease
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Early September 2025
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~$20/share (mostly stock); Zaslav co-CEO perch; focus on HBO Max/Warner studios carve-out.
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Too lowball, light on cash—WBD needs green to douse its debt inferno, not more paper promises.
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+12% (a polite “maybe next time”)
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Round 2: The Chase
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Mid-September 2025
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Bumped to ~$22/share; $1.5B breakup fee tossed in like chum.
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Still stock-heavy; smells like a Trojan horse for antitrust dragons.
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+8% (intrigued, but skeptical)
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Round 3: The Hail Mary
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Late October 2025
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~$24/share (80% cash!); $2.1B reverse breakup fee; Ellison’s Oracle billions as backstop.
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“We can do better,” board says, eyes on a full auction. Zaslav hints at $30+ dreams.
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+20% (the crowd roars, but the gladiator stands firm)
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Sources close to the kerfuffle (CNBC, Bloomberg—take your leaks where you find ’em) whisper that Ellison’s persistence isn’t ego; it’s arithmetic. A WBD merger would forge a $100+ billion leviathan: 150 million combined streaming subs, 25% U.S. box office stranglehold, and a content library that could choke a supercomputer. Paramount+ (70M subs, still bleeding red) gets HBO’s crown jewels; WBD sheds its cable albatross (CNN, TNT—RIP NBA dreams?). But Zaslav, the ultimate downsizer (he’s axed 5,000 jobs since 2022), isn’t selling cheap. His counterpunch? Announce a “strategic review” on October 21—Wall Street euphemism for “auction block, baby.” JPMorgan and Allen & Co. are already dialing suitors.
The Downsizing Tsunami: Why No Merger Saves the Behemoths
We’ve beaten this drum raw: These giants can’t shrink fast enough. WBD’s $41 billion debt mountain? Paramount’s own $15 billion pile post-merger? It’s not just numbers—it’s a symptom of an industry addicted to overproduction. Remember our piece on the “content cull,” where Warner axed Batgirl and Coyote vs. Acme to the taxman? That’s not thrift; that’s triage. Streaming margins hover at razor-thin 5-10% (vs. cable’s old 40%), subs churn like butter, and Big Tech (Amazon, Apple) laps up ad dollars with AI-fueled precision.Enter the bloodletting:
- Layoff Lottery: Any deal here means 20-30% headcount hacks—15,000+ jobs vaporized. Paramount just pink-slipped 2,000 last month; WBD’s next if Comcast or Amazon bites.
- Asset Autopsy: WBD’s prepping a 2026 split—Warner Bros. Entertainment (the sexy streaming/studio half) vs. Discovery Global (cable zombies). Bidders pick ‘n’ mix: Want HBO without HGTV baggage? Done.
- Subscriber Slaughter: Mergers promise “efficiencies,” but users get the shaft—higher prices, fewer choices. HBO Max + Paramount+? A $20/month behemoth that bundles Succession with SpongeBob reboots nobody asked for.
This isn’t evolution; it’s extinction event lite. As we’ve argued, the real winners aren’t the merged monsters—they’re the nimble upstarts like WingDing Media’s AdVantage™ ecosystem, slinging targeted clips and highlights to 30M+ eyeballs without the legacy drag. (Shameless plug: If your brand’s chasing ROI in the chaos, hit us up.)
What’s in Store: Dominance Dash or Survival Sprint?
Peek into the crystal ball (or just eavesdrop on the banker calls):
- Ellison’s Encore (60% Odds): Paramount reloads with a $25-28/share knockout punch, greased by Larry Ellison’s D.C. Rolodex (Trump-era antitrust nods, anyone?). Outcome: A “New Hollywood” titan, but with Zaslav as co-emperor—expect Mission: Impossible crossovers with The Batman and 10,000 more casualties.
- Suitor Shuffle (30% Odds): Comcast grabs the cable scraps for Peacock ballast; Amazon hoovers the studios for Prime Video fuel. No single dominance, just a fractured fiefdom where WBD’s IP scatters like chum.
- Lone Wolf Limps (10% Odds): No deal. WBD spins, slashes, and survives as a leaner zombie—Zaslav’s golden parachute pops by 2027.
Blood in the water? Absolutely. But for creators, advertisers, and cord-cutters like you, it’s opportunity’s wake. The behemoths merge or die, but the smart money’s on the minnows schooling smarter. What’s your bet—Ellison’s empire or Zaslav’s scorched earth? In this industry, staying nimble isn’t optional—it’s your next meal.